Global Warming for Cape Cod

The problems experienced on the Cape because of coastal change will be amplified exponentially by global warming. Not only will sea level rise threaten people’s livelihood in already vulnerable areas, but there will be a series of secondary and tertiary effects felt like increased erosion, storm intensity, flooding, loss of property and coastal habitats, contamination of both surface water and ground water and inundation of marshes and estuaries to cite a few examples.

Coastal marshes have kept pace with the slow rate of sea level rise that has characterized the last several thousand years. Thus, the area of marsh has expanded over time as new lands have been inundated. If in the future, sea level rises faster than the ability of the marsh to keep pace, the marsh area will contract. Construction of bulkheads to protect economic development may prevent new marsh from forming and result in total loss of marsh in some areas.

Current coastal management measures should be coupled with preparedness planning for sea level rise. The Cape, because of the National Seashore, is positioned differently than many other coastal communities that are preemptively responding by conducting beach replenishment or elevating existing structures in low lying areas. The EPA’s report on Climate Change states that:

Property owners and federal, state, and local governments are already starting to take measures to prepare for the consequences of rising sea level. Most coastal states are working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to place sand onto their beaches to offset shore erosion.[i]

Because these same measures cannot be taken within the park, the NPS needs to be armed with information about how sea level rise will affect the coastline if it cannot be physically armoring its beaches. A better sense of how the Cape should respond can be gardened by conducting long term monitoring through projects like the Marindin Project or evaluating the vulnerability of the coast through models like the U.S. Geological Survey generated Coastal Vulnerability Index.

Coastal Vulnerability Index

The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is a map of the Cape that ranks the vulnerability of the coast to future sea level rise based on six different variables: geomorphology, shoreline erosion/accretion rate, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate, mean wave height, and mean tide range, which collectively yields a CVI number.

The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system’s susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park’s natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise.[ii]

Relative Coastal Vulnerability for Cape Cod National Seashore. The innermost color bar is the relative coastal vulnerability index (CVI). The remaining color bars are separated into the geologic variables (1-3) and physical process variables.

While this map offers a crude estimation of Cape’s susceptibility, it reinforces many the same sites I have identified as being vulnerable. Areas coded in red have the highest vulnerability ranking, which encompass featured sites in this project like the Nauset-Monomy Barrier, the Provincetown Hook and Great Island. By monitoring these areas closely, the community can be better prepared but without implementing some type of widespread short front protection strategies like soft solutions, the Cape will experience the same negative consequences of global warming as other low-lying coastal communities.


[i] “Coastal Zones and Sea Level Rise | Climate Change – Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 06 Dec. 2009. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/index.html>.

[ii] “U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-233, Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Cape Cod National Seashore to Sea-Level Rise, Abstract.” USGS Publications Warehouse. Web. 06 Dec. 2009. <http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-233/abstract.html>.

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